In prospect theory, the pseudocertainty effect is the tendency for people to perceive an outcome as certain while it is actually uncertain in multi-stage decision making. The evaluation of the certainty of the outcome in a previous stage of decisions is disregarded when selecting an option in subsequent stages. Not to be confused with certainty effect, the pseudocertainty effect was discovered from an attempt at providing a normative use of decision theory for the certainty effect by relaxing the cancellation rule.[1]
在前景理论中，伪确定性效应是指在多阶段决策中，人们倾向于将结果视为确定的，而实际上它却是不确定的。在后续阶段选择选项时，会忽略前一决策阶段中结果确定性的评估。不要与确定性效应混淆，伪确定性效应是在试图为确定性效应提供决策理论的规范用途时，通过放宽取消规则而发现的。[1]
Background 背景The pseudocertainty effect was illustrated by Daniel Kahneman, who received the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on decision making and decision theory, in collaboration with Amos Tversky. The studies that they researched used real and hypothetical monetary gambles and were often used in undergraduate classrooms and laboratories.[1] Kahneman and Tversky illustrated the pseudocertainty effect by the following examples.[2]
伪确定性效应由丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）说明，他因其在决策和决策理论方面的工作获得了诺贝尔经济学奖，他与阿莫斯·特沃斯基（Amos Tversky）合作。他们研究的研究使用了真实和假设的货币赌博，并且经常在本科教室和实验室中使用。[1] 卡尼曼和特沃斯基通过以下示例说明了伪确定性效应。[2]
Problem 1 问题 1Consider the following two stage game. In the first stage, there is a 75% chance to end the game without winning anything and a 25% chance to move into the second stage. If you reach the second stage, you have a choice between:
Which of the following options do you prefer?
Your choice must be made before the game starts, i.e., before the outcome of the first stage is known. Please indicate the option you prefer.
考虑如下此两阶段的游戏。在第一阶段，有 75%的机会在不赢得任何东西的情况下结束游戏，有 25%的机会进入第二阶段。如果您到达第二阶段，您可以在以下两者之间进行选择：
您更喜欢以下哪个选项？
A. 100%的机会赢得 30 美元
B. 80%的机会赢得 45 美元
您的选择必须在游戏开始之前做出，即在第一阶段的结果已知晓之前。请指出您更喜欢的选项。
Problem 2 问题 2Which of the following options do you prefer?
Also, this time the participants had to make their choice before the game starts.
您更喜欢以下哪个选项？
C. 25%的机会赢得 30 美元
D. 20%的机会赢得 45 美元
同样，这一次参与者必须在游戏开始之前做出他们的选择。
Significance 意义Each problem was answered by a different group of respondents. In problem 1, people preferred option A with a rate of 74% over option B with 26%, even though the expected return of option B is higher. In problem 2, people preferred option D with a rate of 58% over option C with a rate of 42%.[2] However, the discrepancy between the answers were surprising because the two problems were designed to have identical outcomes. The choices in problem 2 were designed to be compressed forms of the choices from the two stages of problem 1.[3]
每个问题都由不同组的受访者回答。在问题 1 中，人们以 74%的比率更喜欢选项 A，而不是 26%的选项 B，尽管选项 B 的预期回报更高。在问题 2 中，人们以 58%的比率更喜欢选项 D，而不是 42%的选项 C。[2] 然而，答案之间的差异令人惊讶，因为这两个问题的设计具有相同的结果。问题 2 中的选择是问题 1 中两个阶段的选择的压缩形式。[3]
(25% chance to move on x 100% = 25%) chance to win $30. The same $7.50 expected return in option A and option C.
（25%的机会继续 x 100%=25%）赢得 30 美元的机会。选项 A 和选项 C 的预期回报相同，均为 7.50 美元。
(25% chance to move on x 80% = 20%) chance to win $45. The same $9.00 expected return in option B and option D.
（25%的机会继续 x 80%=20%）赢得 45 美元的机会。选项 B 和选项 D 的预期回报相同，均为 9.00 美元。
Kahneman and Tversky referred to this incidence as a result of what they called the "pseudocertainty effect". They concluded that when people make choices at later stages of problems they often do not realize that uncertainty at an earlier stage will affect the final outcome. This was clearly observed in the two stage problem shown above in which the problem moved onto the second stage only if the condition of the first stage was met.[3]
卡尼曼和特沃斯基将此事件称为他们所谓的“伪确定性效应”的结果。他们得出结论，当人们在问题的后期做出选择时，他们往往没有意识到早期阶段的不确定性会影响最终结果。这在上面所示的两阶段问题中得到了明确观察，只有在满足第一阶段的条件时，该问题才会进入第二阶段。[3]
In the second problem, since individuals have no choice on options in the first stage, individuals tend to discard the first option when evaluating the overall probability of winning money, but just to consider the options in the second stage that individuals have a choice on. This is also known as cancellation, meaning that possible options are yielding to the same outcome thus ignoring decision process in that stage.[1]
在第二个问题中，由于个人在第一阶段对选项没有选择，个人在评估赢得金钱的总体概率时往往会丢弃第一个选项，而只是考虑个人有选择的第二阶段的选项。这也被称为取消，意味着可能的选项产生相同的结果，从而忽略了该阶段的决策过程。[1]
弗雷德英语笔记pseudo/ˈsjuːdəʊ/ ADJ not genuine; pretended 假的
disregard/ˌdɪsrɪˈɡɑːd/ (dis-, 不，非，使相反。regard, 关切，关心)
1.V-T If you disregard something, you ignore it or do not take account of it. 对…置之不理
• He disregarded the advice of his executives.
他对主管们的建议置之不理。
2.N-UNCOUNT Disregard is also a noun. 忽视
• Whoever planted the bomb showed a total disregard for the safety of the public.
不论谁安置了炸弹都显示出对公众安全的全然漠视。
normative/ˈnɔːmətɪv/
ADJ Normative means creating or stating particular rules of behaviour. 规范的; 标准的
• normative sexual behaviour in our society remains heterosexual.
我们社会的性行为规范依然是异性间的。
• ...a normative model of teaching.
...一种教学的标准模式。
norm/nɔːm/
1.N-COUNT Norms are ways of behaving that are considered normal in a particular society. 准则
• The actions taken depart from what she called the commonly accepted norms of democracy.
所采取的这些行动背离了她所谓的那些普遍接受的民主准则。
2.N-SING If you say that a situation is the norm, you mean that it is usual and expected. 惯例; 常规
• Families of six or seven are the norm in Borough Park.
六七口人的家庭在菠萝园是常事儿。
3.N-COUNT A norm is an official standard or level that organizations are expected to reach. 标准
• About 32 percent of students meet national norms in reading.
大约32%的学生达到国家阅读标准。
re·spond·ent n. /rɪˈspɒndənt/
1.a person who answers questions, especially in a survey回答问题的人；（尤指）调查对象
•60% of the respondents agreed with the suggestion.回复调查的人中60%同意这项建议。
2. ( law 律)a person who is accused of sth被告
dis·crep·ancy n. /dɪsˈkrepənsi/ ( pl.-ies) [ CU] (dis-, 分开，散开。-crep, 破裂声，词源同crevice, decrepit. 引申词义争吵，不一致。)
~ (in sth)~ (between A and B)a difference between two or more things that should be the same差异；不符合；不一致
•wide discrepancies in prices quoted for the work这项工作的报价出入很大
•What are the reasons for the discrepancy between girls' and boys' performance in school?女生和男生在学校表现不同的原因何在呢？
diˈscrepant/dɪˈskrɛpənt/ ADJ inconsistent; conflicting; at variance 不一致的; 冲突的
compressed/kəmˈprɛst/ ADJ Compressed air or gas is squeezed into a small space or container and is therefore at a higher pressure than normal. It is used especially as a source of power for machines. 压缩的 (词根词缀： com-共同,一起 -press-压)
yield/jiːld/
1.V-I If you yield to someone or something, you stop resisting them. 屈服
• Carmen yielded to general pressure and grudgingly took the child to a specialist.
卡门屈服于普遍的压力，不得已带孩子去看了位专科大夫。
2.V-T If you yield something that you have control of or responsibility for, you allow someone else to have control or responsibility for it. 放弃
• He may yield control.
他可能放弃控制权。
3.V-I If a moving person or a vehicle yields, they slow down in order to allow other people or vehicles to pass in front of them. 让行
• When entering a trail or starting a descent, yield to other skiers.
进入滑道或开始下滑时，给其他滑雪者们让行
• ...examples of common signs like No Smoking and Yield.
…像“禁止吸烟”和“让行”这样的常见标志例子。
4.V-I If something yields, it breaks or moves position because force or pressure has been put on it. (因受力或受压而) 破碎; 断裂; 移位
• He reached the massive door of the barn and pushed. It yielded.
他够着了畜棚厚重的大门推了推。门开了。
5.V-T If an area of land yields a particular amount of a crop, this is the amount that is produced. You can also say that a number of animals yield a particular amount of meat. 产
• Last year 400,000 acres of land yielded a crop worth $1.75 billion.
去年40万英亩的土地出产了价值17.5亿美元的粮食。
6.N-COUNT A yield is the amount of food produced on an area of land or by a number of animals. 产量
• ...improving the yield of the crop.
…增加农作物的产量。
7.V-T If a tax or investment yields an amount of money or profit, this money or profit is obtained from it. 产生 (收益)
• It yielded a profit of at least $36 million.
它带来了至少三千六百万美元的利润。
8.N-COUNT A yield is the amount of money or profit produced by an investment. (投资的) 利润; 收益
• ...a yield of 4%.
…4%的收益。
• The high yields available on the dividend shares made them attractive to private investors.
股息股能获得的高收益使它们对私人投资者们很有吸引力。
9.V-T If something yields a result or piece of information, it produces it. 产生 (结果); 制造 (消息)
• This research has been in progress since 1961 and has yielded a great number of positive results.
这项研究自1961年以来一直在开展，已经取得了大量的积极成果。
文章来源：节选自维基百科
网址：https://en.wikipedia.org
参考译文及笔记：英语老师弗雷德人工手打
转发请标注英文作者，中文翻译者及出处。
英语老师弗雷德践行英语教与学三十年，曾在中国，美国，加拿大多地中小学校任教：上传英语学习笔记，下载文化交际热点；左顾娱乐百相人生，右盼生活五味杂陈。只发布原创首发头条，敬请支持关注！
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