本文摘要：
这篇文章讨论了人工智能聊天机器人对在线搜索的潜在影响。像OpenAI制作的ChatGPT这样的聊天机器人，其工作方式与谷歌和必应等传统在线搜索引擎不同。聊天机器人不是在互联网上爬行收集信息并向用户返回最相关的链接，而是建立在大型语言模型上，根据其对使用前面词语的数十亿句子的阅读，预测反应中最可能的下一个词语。这使得聊天机器人能够提供流畅的、量身定做的答案。
本文认为，人工智能聊天机器人可以在两个重要方面改变搜索：它们将能够回答具有多个变量的复杂问题，并为特定行业的聊天机器人扩大创造新的市场。例如，帮助人们规划特定需要的度假计划、学童用ChatGPT帮助做作业、软件工程师用它来调试代码，甚至可以帮助诊断疾病或创建PowerPoint演示文稿。特定行业的聊天机器人可能会导致未来基于聊天机器人的服务出现新的爆炸。
虽然聊天机器人有其不足之处，但它们有可能改变人们与互联网和信息的互动方式。然而，聊天机器人的货币化可能是一个挑战，如果聊天机器人获得大量市场份额，谷歌在搜索市场的垄断地位可能会受到威胁。
Chatgpt, an artificial-intelligence (ai) chatbot produced by OpenAI, a California-based startup, can generate human-like answers to questions. It can write poems, computer code and much more besides. ubs, a bank, reckons that since ChatGPT’s launch in November it has attracted 100m monthly active users. On February 7th Microsoft announced that it will infuse Bing, its search engine, with some of ChatGPT’s magic, thanks to a partnership with OpenAI. On the day before, Alphabet, Google’s parent company, had said that it would soon launch Bard, its own ai chatbot. Baidu, China’s search giant, has promised to do the same. Online-search startups, including Neeva and You.com, have ai chatbots, too. How will this flurry of innovation change search?
OpenAI是一家总部位于加利福尼亚的初创公司，旗下的人工智能（AI）聊天机器人ChatGPT可以为问题提供人类般的答案，它可以写诗、编写计算机代码等等。据瑞士银行瑞银称，自ChatGPT于去年11月推出以来，已吸引了1亿活跃用户。2月7日，微软宣布将在必应搜索引擎中加入一些ChatGPT的技术，由于与OpenAI的合作。在此前一天，谷歌的母公司Alphabet也宣布将很快推出Bard，自己的AI聊天机器人。中国搜索巨头百度也承诺要做同样的事情。在线搜索初创公司，包括Neeva和You.com也拥有AI聊天机器人。这场创新浪潮将如何改变搜索？
ChatGPT and chatbots like it do not work like conventional online search. Today, Google and Bing work by sending out web crawlers, a type of bot (autonomous programme), to roam the internet and collect information, before organising the results and returning the most relevant links to the user in response to a search request. By contrast, ai chatbots are built on large language models: algorithms trained on vast chunks of the internet. The bot predicts the likeliest next word in a response to some query based on its reading of billions of sentences that use the preceding words. Instead of serving up a list of links, chatbots can return fluent answers.
像ChatGPT这样的聊天机器人并不像传统的在线搜索那样工作。今天，谷歌和必应通过派出网络爬虫（一种自主程序）在互联网上漫游并收集信息，然后组织结果并返回最相关的链接，以响应搜索请求。相比之下，AI聊天机器人是基于大型语言模型构建的：这是训练在互联网大量文本上的算法。该机器人根据其阅读使用前面的单词的数十亿个句子的预测下一个句子的可能单词。聊天机器人可以提供流畅的答案，而不是仅列出一系列链接。
This ability means that search will change in two big ways. First, results will be able to answer complex questions with multiple variables. Imagine a tourist who is looking for a dog-friendly hotel in Hawaii that is close to the beach and within walking distance of a shopping centre. To find his ideal place on Google might mean skim-reading dozens of websites. The chatbot’s ability to predict the next word in a sentence allows it to recommend a bolthole in moments—then plan a week-long holiday for him.
这种能力意味着搜索将发生两个重大变化。首先，结果将能够回答具有多个变量的复杂问题。想象一下，一个旅游者正在寻找一个对狗友好的且位于夏威夷的酒店，需要靠近海滩和有步行距离内的购物中心。在谷歌上找到他理想的地方可能意味着浏览数十个网站。聊天机器人预测下一个句子的能力使其能够在几分钟内推荐一个避难所，然后为他规划为期一周的假期。
Second, the market will expand. School children already ask ChatGPT to help with (and sometimes cheat on) history homework; software engineers ask it to debug code. Other applications will no doubt crop up to help diagnose illnesses, for example, or whip up PowerPoint presentations. This may result in an explosion of industry-specific chatbots. Already C3.ai, a business-software firm, is planning to use similar technology to help companies search their in-house data. Travel firms, including Booking.com, are experimenting with chatbots, too. For the first time in decades Google’s monopoly is at risk. It currently has 93% of the search market by volume, compared with Bing’s 3%. But it has not yet launched Bard, possibly because it fears a public backlash if the bot delivers offensive answers.
第二，市场会扩大。学生已经开始向ChatGPT寻求帮助来完成（有时是作弊的）历史作业，软件工程师则向它求助来调试代码。毫无疑问，其他应用程序也将出现，以帮助诊断疾病，或制作PowerPoint演示文稿等。这可能会导致行业专用聊天机器人的爆炸式增长。C3.ai是一家企业软件公司，已经在计划使用类似的技术来帮助公司搜索其内部数据。包括Booking.com在内的旅行公司也在尝试聊天机器人。在几十年来首次，谷歌的垄断地位正受到威胁。目前，它占据了搜索市场93%的份额，而Bing只有3%。但它尚未推出Bard，可能是因为它担心该机器人会提供冒犯性答案而引发公众反弹。
crop up：弹出；出现
whip up：制作，表达快速完成的意思
Chatbots have plenty of shortcomings. A big one is that they can make stuff up. These “hallucinations” happen because the models do not actually understand what they are saying. Chatbots might also be hard to monetise; it’s harder to insert ads into a conversation with an ai chatbot than into a Google search. (Microsoft says it will experiment with adding ads into its chatbot’s answers on Bing.) The cost of the additional computing power needed to run chatbots will probably eat into search engines’ margins. Some firms, including Neeva, are trying to get users to buy subscriptions to their chatbot services. Whatever their imperfections, chatbots have the potential to transform the way that people interact with the internet and information. Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, has called the technology “as important as the pc, as the internet”. Changing how you find your dream holiday may be just the start.
ChatGPT等聊天机器人也有缺点。一个大问题是它们可能会胡说八道。这种“幻觉”发生是因为这些模型实际上并不理解它们所说的内容。聊天机器人可能也很难实现商业化，因为将广告插入与AI聊天机器人的对话中比将广告插入Google搜索中更为困难。（微软表示，将尝试在Bing的聊天机器人回答中添加广告）。所需的额外计算能力的成本可能会损害搜索引擎的利润。包括Neeva在内的一些公司正在尝试让用户购买他们的聊天机器人服务的订阅。无论其缺陷如何，聊天机器人都有潜力改变人们与互联网和信息交互的方式。Microsoft联合创始人比尔·盖茨称这项技术“它像个人电脑一样重要，像互联网一样重要”。改变如何找到你的梦想假期可能只是个开始。
