How the Drone War in Ukraine Is Transforming Conflict 乌克兰无人机战争如何改变冲突
无人机技术已在21世纪的武装冲突中广泛使用，但俄乌战争正在推动其他战场上前所未见的自主战争创新。
Drone technology has been used extensively in twenty-first-century armed conflict, but the Russia-Ukraine war is driving innovations in autonomous warfare not seen on other battlefields.
从手掌中的无人机到重量超过1000磅（454公斤）的无人机，乌克兰建造并获得了一支多样化的遥控飞机舰队，以使俄罗斯的战场进步复杂化并受挫。这项技术不断发展的范围及其日益增长的使用不仅表明了无人机在俄乌战争中创造公平竞争环境的潜力，也表明了它们影响未来冲突的能力。
From drones that fit in the palm of the hand to drones weighing more than 1,000 pounds (454 kilograms), Ukraine has built and acquired a diverse fleet of remotely piloted aircraft to complicate and frustrate Russia’s advances. The constantly evolving scope of this technology and its ever-growing use signal not only the potential for drones to level the playing field in the Russia-Ukraine war, but also their ability to influence how future conflicts are waged.
Why is the war in Ukraine a hotbed for drones? 为什么乌克兰战争是无人机的温床？
随着战争进入第三个日历年头，双方都没有接近实现空中优势。大多数军事分析人士预计，拥有强大空中力量的俄罗斯将在冲突初期迅速夺取有争议空域的控制权。但令人惊讶的是，乌克兰的防御系统后来在西方系统的支持下，能够击退并阻止俄罗斯飞机进行近边境和跨境打击。任何一方都无法突破对方的综合防空系统，这迫使他们提高派出部队的灵活性，并更加依赖防区外武器，包括远程火炮、导弹和无人机。这些条件导致了新的无人机技术的发展，这可能有助于乌克兰在空战中创造公平的竞争环境，并可能扭转战争的趋势。
As the war enters its third calendar year, neither side is close to achieving air superiority. Most military analysts expected that Russia, with its superior air power, would quickly seize control of contested airspace early in the conflict. But surprisingly, Ukraine’s defenses, later bolstered by Western systems, were able to repel and deter Russian aircraft from making near-border and cross-border strikes. The inability of either side to break through the other’s integrated air defenses has forced them to increase the agility of their fielded forces and rely more heavily on standoff weapons, including long-range artillery, missiles, and drones. These conditions have led to the development of new drone technologies that could help Ukraine level the playing field in the air battle and possibly turn the tide of the war in its favor.
What technologies are in use? 正在使用哪些技术？
乌克兰的无人机部署随着战场的变化而变化。在战争的早期阶段，当俄罗斯的防空和电子战能力不太明显时，乌克兰在很大程度上依赖土耳其TB2 Bayraktar等大型无人机。TB2能够携带多种空对地弹药并长时间徘徊，使乌克兰军队能够穿透俄罗斯防空系统并打击重型目标。然而，随着时间的推移，俄罗斯对天空的控制越来越大，它能够更容易地探测和击落这些更大的无人机。TB2可能会保持一定的相关性——它的传感器套件和相当大的射程仍然使乌克兰操作员能够收集情报——但乌克兰已经转向使用较小的无人机技术来适应俄罗斯的进步。
Ukraine’s drone deployment has evolved with the changing battlefield. During earlier stages of the war—when Russia’s air defense and electronic-warfare capabilities were less pronounced—Ukraine relied on larger drones such as the Turkish TB2 Bayraktar to great effect. The TB2’s ability to carry multiple air-to-ground munitions and loiter for long periods allowed Ukrainian forces to penetrate Russian air defenses and strike heavy targets. However, as time progressed and Russia took greater control of the skies, it was able to detect and shoot down these larger models more easily. The TB2 may maintain some relevance—its sensor suite and considerable range still enable Ukrainian operators to collect intelligence—but Ukraine has nonetheless shifted to using smaller drone technology to adapt to Russian advances.
事实证明，数量更多、体积更小的无人机是严重的游戏规则改变者，因为它们让乌克兰有了更好的作战空间意识和更多的打击目标的能力。乌克兰人利用商业技术——平民可以使用的娱乐产品——将廉价的现成无人机迅速投入战场。这些“业余爱好者”无人机中的许多都是通过基层众筹或“dronations”获得的。这些小型无人机每架仅需1000美元，就可以被运营商迅速收集并重新利用，以达到特定的效果。例如，通常用于比赛或电影制作的流行的第一人称视角（FPV）无人机被改装成临时炸药，并以相对较低的成本打击固定目标。这些无人机可以进行高精度的一次性打击，同时不太容易受到俄罗斯防空系统的影响。此外，乌克兰人重新调整了国内经济的重要方面，以支持新的无人机供应链，通过公私合作提高了无人机制造能力。一年前，乌克兰有七家国内无人机制造商，现在至少有八十家。
The more abundant, smaller drones are proving to be serious game changers in that they have given Ukraine better battlespace awareness and more capability to hit targets. The Ukrainians have tapped into commercial technology—the same recreational products available to civilians—to get cheap, off-the-shelf drones onto the battlefield quickly. Many of these “hobbyist” drones have been acquired through grassroots crowdfunding efforts, or “dronations.” At just one thousand dollars per unit, the small drones can be rapidly amassed and repurposed by operators for a specific effect. For example, the popular first-person view (FPV) drones commonly used for racing or filmmaking are retrofitted with makeshift explosives and flown to strike fixed targets at relatively low cost. These drones can carry out single-use strikes with high precision while remaining less susceptible to Russian air defense systems. Additionally, the Ukrainians have repurposed significant aspects of their domestic economy to support the new drone supply chain, increasing their drone-making capabilities through public-private partnerships. One year ago, Ukraine had seven domestic drone manufacturers and it now has at least eighty.
至于俄罗斯的无人机技术，莫斯科部署了本土型号，如猎户座、Eleron-3、Orlan-10和Lancet，但西方对俄罗斯关键供应链的制裁使莫斯科无法在无人机生产方面表现出色。相反，俄罗斯向伊朗寻求稳定的供应。俄罗斯人现在拥有一支由伊朗制造的Shahed-136无人机组成的庞大无人机舰队，可以在1200英里（1931公里）的范围内携带100磅（45.4公斤）的炸药。
As for Russian drone technology, Moscow deploys indigenous models, such as the Orion, Eleron-3, Orlan-10, and Lancet, but Western sanctions on crucial Russian supply chains have prevented Moscow from excelling in drone production. Instead, Russia has turned to Iran for a steady supply. The Russians now boast an extensive fleet of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that can carry 100 pounds (45.4 kilograms) of explosives over a range of 1,200 miles (1931 kilometers).
How are drones shaping the war? 无人机是如何影响战争的？
这场冲突展示了无人机的战场优势，无人机变得更小、更致命、更容易操作，几乎任何人都可以使用。它们压缩了所谓的*伤链，缩短了从探测到目标到摧毁目标的时间，并可以增强军队侦察战场前沿的能力。续航能力更长的无人机可以有效地进行数小时的侦察，使其他更先进的无人机能够在敌方领土深处进行精确打击。其他模型使个别士兵能够在不冒生命危险或放弃士兵位置的情况下监视对手的行动。
This conflict has demonstrated the battlefield advantages of drones, which have become smaller, more lethal, easier to operate, and available to almost anyone. They compress the so-called kill chain, shortening the time from when a target is detected to when it is destroyed, and they can bolster a military’s ability to reconnoiter the forward edge of the battlefield. Drones with longer endurance profiles can effectively conduct hours of reconnaissance, enabling other, more advanced drones to carry out precision strikes deep inside enemy territory. Other models enable individual soldiers to monitor adversary movement without risking lives or giving up the soldier’s position.
无人机还可以发挥重要的国际人道主义作用，例如，通过进行战斗和附带损害评估或揭露战争罪行。美国无人机制造商Skydio最近捐赠了九架无人机，这些无人机及其高分辨率相机将用于帮助乌克兰记录俄罗斯潜在的战争罪行。通过美国国际开发署（USAID），拍摄的图像将用于帮助总检察长办公室记录许多侵犯人权的事件。
Drones can also play an important international humanitarian role, for instance, by conducting battle and collateral damage assessments or exposing war crimes. U.S. drone manufacturer Skydio recently donated nine drones that—with their high-resolution cameras—will be used to help Ukraine document potential Russian war crimes. Through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), images captured will be used to aid the Office of the Prosecutor General in documenting many instances of human rights abuses.
What are the defenses against drones? 对无人机有什么防御措施？
无人机容易受到防空系统的影响。具有明显雷达横截面的大型无人机是防空拦截弹和反无人机炮的容易、缓慢移动的目标；乌克兰和俄罗斯都用拦截弹和大炮击落了数千架无人机。然而，乌克兰和俄罗斯持续使用这些系统的成本可能高得令人望而却步，因为一架无人机的拦截成本可能高达数千甚至数百万美元。
Drones are susceptible to air defenses. Larger drones with a distinct radar cross-section are easy, slow-moving targets for air defense interceptors and anti-drone guns; both Ukraine and Russia have downed thousands of drones with their interceptors and artillery. However, the continual use of these systems by both Ukraine and Russia can be prohibitively costly, as a single drone could cost thousands or even millions of dollars to intercept.
反无人机防御的一个新挑战是需要开发和使用一种比目标更便宜的系统。至关重要的是，能够冲向目标的小型无人机更难被击落。因为它们可以压制防空系统。一个关键的对策是以干扰机、欺骗机和高能激光的形式利用电子战，防止无人机到达目标。俄罗斯和乌克兰都使用的干扰机会发出强大的电磁信号，导致目标无人机坠落地面、偏离航向或转身攻击其操作员。随着战争的进展，双方都在不断投资和调整电子战战术，以对抗对手的创新。
An emerging challenge of counter-drone defense is the need to develop and employ a system that is cheaper than its target. Crucially, smaller drones that can swarm toward a target are more difficult to shoot down. as they can overwhelm air defense systems. A key countermeasure has been to utilize electronic warfare in the form of jammers, spoofers, and high-energy lasers that prevent drones from reaching their target. Jammers—used by both Russia and Ukraine—send out powerful electromagnetic signals that can cause a target drone to fall to the ground, veer off course, or turn around and attack its operator. As the war progresses, both sides are continually investing in and adapting electronic warfare tactics to counter the innovations of their adversary.
How will the drone war evolve? 无人机战争将如何演变？
俄乌冲突表明，无人机技术的创新尤其可以改变防空领域的力量平衡。尽管俄罗斯寻求建立空中优势，加强其无人机生产和反无人机防御，但乌克兰仍在继续开发或多或少复杂的解决方案。在最近发现的一个与伊朗的合作项目中，俄罗斯在莫斯科以东500英里（805公里）的鞑靼斯坦完成了一个无人机工厂的建设，到2025年年中，它可以在那里生产大约6000架Shahed-136原型机（莫斯科将其更名为Geran-2）。这一扩大的无人机生产可能足以应对俄罗斯前线无人机的短缺，并扭转冲突的趋势。然而，事实证明，乌克兰获取和众包商用无人机技术、根据实时反馈在战场上对无人机进行战术修改以及改变战术以击败反无人机系统的能力对其战争努力至关重要。尽管乌克兰在兵力方面处于劣势，但它已经表明，精明的技术适应可以改变21世纪的战争，并可以使力量平衡向更具创新性的部队倾斜。
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated that innovations in drone technology can change the balance of power in the air defense domain especially. While Russia seeks to build pockets of air superiority and bolster its drone production and anti-drone defenses, Ukraine continues to develop both more and less sophisticated solutions. In a recently uncovered partnership project with Iran, Russia finished constructing a drone factory in Tatarstan, 500 miles (805 kilometers) east of Moscow, where it could produce an estimated six thousand Shahed-136 prototypes (renamed the Geran-2 by Moscow) by mid-2025. This expanded drone production could be enough to counter Russia’s shortage of drones on the front lines and turn the tide of the conflict in its favor. However, Ukraine’s ability to acquire and crowdsource commercial drone technology, tactically modify drones in the field based on real-time feedback, and alter tactics to defeat anti-drone systems have proved to be crucial to its war effort. Even while overmatched force-wise, Ukraine has shown how savvy technological adaptation can change twenty-first century warfare and could tip the balance of power in favor of the force that is more innovative.
Article by Kristen D. Thompson
January 16, 2024
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conflict
