声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。
本期看点：
●健康保险中，更多的可选条款是否对消费者是否更好？
●医保缴费对企业的市净率有积极影响
●天气指数保险的购买对社会资本产生了负面影响
●主观生存信念：个体年轻时低估了寿命，而在年老时高估寿命
期刊介绍：《Journal of Risk and Insurance》为季刊，每年4期，每期发表文章8-10篇左右。2022-2023年影响因子为1.9，是风险管理与保险领域的顶级权威学术期刊。该期刊主要发表保险经济学和风险管理主题的理论和实证方面的学术论文，可以为保险市场的实践、决策和监管以及企业和家庭风险管理提供重要的信息。
本期目录
●More options, more problems? Lost in the health insurance maze
●How does health spending among demographic groups compare to Affordable Care Act premium regulations?
●How does medical insurance contribution affect corporate value? Evidence from China
●Lower disclosures from customers screened by financial advisors
●The effect of weather index insurance on social capital: Evidence from rural Ethiopia
●Annuity selection in the presence of insurer default risk and government guarantees
●Availability of the seat belt defense: Implications for auto liability insurance
●A behavioral gap in survival beliefs
More options, more problems? Lost in the health insurance maze
更多的选择，更多的问题？迷失在健康保险的迷宫里
作者
Christian Biener(圣加仑大学), Lan Zou(圣加仑大学)
摘要：While the opportunity to choose from a diverse range of options can be advantageous, consumers often struggle to make optimal decisions in the domain of health insurance. In this study, we examine the effects of decision aids on improving choice optimality in a health insurance setting that allows for variations in coverage but is standardized otherwise. While this relatively simplistic setting theoretically implies optimal conditions for observing large fractions of optimal choices, we observe widespread adoption of non-welfare-maximizing plans, with at least 36% of the population winding up with suboptimal insurance plans. In a hypothetical-choice survey experimental setting, we estimate the treatment effects of increasing transparency through information provision and restricting choice on choice optimality. We find that decision quality cannot be improved meaningfully by our interventions and that nonoptimal choice is economically relevant, as it accounts for an increase of approximately 9.4% in total annual cost.
在健康保险领域，多样化的选择机会虽然有益，但消费者往往难以做出最优决策。在本研究中，我们研究了决策辅助对改善健康保险设置中最优选择的影响，设置中允许保险范围的变化，但在其它方面是标准化的。虽然这种相对简单的设置在理论上意味着理应观察到大量最优选择的最佳条件，但我们观察到普遍采用非最大化福利的计划，至少有36%的人口最终采用了次优的保险计划。在一个假设选择调查实验设置中，我们估计了通过信息提供增加透明度和限制在最优选择的处理效果。我们发现，决策质量不能通过我们的干预措施得到有意义的改善，并且非最优选择在经济上是相关的，因为它导致总年度费用增加约9.4%。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12461
How does health spending among demographic groups compare to Affordable Care Act premium regulations?
人口团体的医疗支出与《平价医疗法案》保费规定相比如何？
作者
Caroline Hanson（美国国会预算办公室）， Alexandra Minicozzi（美国国会预算办公室）
摘要：The Affordable Care Act (ACA) substantially altered regulations in the nongroup and small group health insurance markets and those markets continue to receive significant policy attention. To understand how those markets have functioned in recent years and how they would be impacted by policy changes, we estimated enrollment and spending by age and sex using claims data covering enrollment in ACA risk-adjusted plans in 2017–2019 and compared spending to a federal default age-rating curve for premiums. Our results suggest that women aged 55–64 helped stabilize the nongroup market through high enrollment and relatively low spending. Men enrolled in the marketplace also subsidized other nongroup enrollees but to a lesser extent than expected. In fact, men aged25–50 enrolled in nongroup plans spent 18% more than their counterparts enrolled through a small employer. These unique spending patterns have interesting policy implications, including that lowering the Medicare eligibility age would likely increase premiums in the nongroup market.
《平价医疗法案》（ACA）对非团体和个人健康保险市场进行了重大调整，这些市场仍持续受到政策界的广泛关注。为了了解这些市场近年来的运作情况以及它们将如何受到政策变化的影响，为了了解这些市场近年来的运作情况以及政策变化对其产生的影响，我们利用2017-2019年ACA风险调整计划的理赔数据，按年龄和性别估算参保人数和支出情况，并将支出与联邦默认年龄费率曲线进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明，55-64岁的女性通过高参保率和相对较低的支出帮助稳定了非团体市场。市场上，男性参保人群也为其他非团体参保人提供了补贴，但程度低于预期。事实上，25-50岁参加非团体计划的男性支出比通过小型雇主参保同龄人的支出高出18%。这些独特的支出模式具有有趣的政策含义，包括降低医疗保险资格年龄将可能导致非团体市场的保费增加。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12455
How does medical insurance contribution affect corporate value? Evidence from China
医疗保险缴费如何影响企业价值？来自中国的证据
作者
Xuchao Li（武汉大学）,Jiankun Lu（浙江财经大学）, Jian Wang（武汉大学）, Jiyuan Wang（中央财经大学）
摘要：Using medical insurance (MI) to shift employees' health risks outside is an important risk management tool for modern firms. Existing studies usually treat firms' contributions to employees' MI only as a labor cost. However, contributing to MI also has indirect benefits, such as improved labor productivity and R&D innovation, which consequently increase corporate value. This paper studies the impact of firms' MI contributions for employees on corporate value, using social insurance collection system reform in China as a natural experiment. Results show that, first, the reform increases firms' contributions to employees' MI funds. Second, the increase has a positive impact on firms' market-to-book ratio. These effects can be explained by enhanced labor productivity, firm efficiency, and innovation. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effects are more pronounced for firms in high R&D industries, areas with high pollution, or areas with better medical and labor supplies.
利用医疗保险（MI）将员工的健康风险转移到外部是现代企业的一个重要风险管理工具。现有研究通常只将企业对员工医疗保险的缴费视为劳动力成本。然而，对医疗保险的缴费也具有间接好处，如提高劳动生产力和促进研发创新，从而提高企业价值。本文以中国社会保险征收制度改革为自然实验，研究了企业为员工MI缴费对企业价值的影响。研究结果表明：第一，改革增加了企业对员工医疗保险基金的缴费。其次，这一增长对企业的市净率有积极影响。这些影响可以通过劳动生产力的提高、企业效率和创新来解释。异质性分析表明，这种影响对高研发行业、高污染地区或医疗和劳动力供应更好的地区的企业更为明显。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12448
Lower disclosures from customers screened by financial advisors
经财务顾问筛选的客户披露信息更少
作者
Doron Samuell(悉尼大学), Demetris Christodoulou(悉尼大学)
摘要：We find that there are fewer disclosures of risk factors when customers for life insurance are screened by financial advisors, compared with when similar profile customers are screened directly by the insurer's telephone operators. The lower rate of disclosure is systematic across all medical and lifestyle risks and has a sizeable economic impact on customer premiums. As a result, customers screened by advisors enjoy unfairly cheaper and more favorable policies. We identify the key drivers of lower customer disclosures to be conflicted incentives and lower scrutiny. We assert that the fewer disclosures from customers screened by advisors may translate into noncaptured risk that could be cross-subsidized by customers who provide more complete disclosures through the insurer's telephone operators. On reviewing our findings, the participating insurer in the study calculated that removing advisors from the screening process could allow certain insurance products to be heavily discounted while maintaining profitability.
我们发现，与直接由保险公司的电话操作员筛选的类似的客户相比，由财务顾问筛选的人寿保险客户的风险因素披露更少。较低的披露率在所有医疗和生活方式风险中都是系统性的，并对客户保费产生相当大的经济影响。因此，经过顾问筛选的客户享受到不公平的更便宜、更优惠的政策。我们认为导致客户信息披露减少的关键因素是利益冲突和审查不严。我们断言，由顾问筛选的客户披露较少可能会转化为未被捕捉的风险，这些风险可能由通过保险公司电话操作员提供更完整披露的客户进行交叉补贴。在回顾我们的发现时，参与研究的保险公司计算出，将顾问从筛选过程中移除可以使某些保险产品在保持盈利能力的同时大幅折扣。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12453
The effect of weather index insurance on social capital: Evidence from rural Ethiopia
天气指数保险对社会资本的影响：来自埃塞俄比亚农村的实证
作者
Halefom Yigzaw Nigus（埃塞俄比亚政策研究所）, Eleonora Nillesen（马斯特里赫特大学）, Pierre Mohnen（马斯特里赫特大学）
摘要：We study the effect of weather index insurance (WII) uptake on social capital. We measure individual social capital using experimental and survey-based measures and relate it to the actual purchase of WII. We use propensity score matching (PSM) and an instrumental variable (IV) to address endogeneity concerns. Our descriptive and PSM estimates show that WII uptake negatively and significantly affects social capital. We find that insured households contribute less to the public good than uninsured households. We also find qualitatively and quantitatively similar results using our IV approach, yet insufficient power renders most of our IV estimates insignificant. We however report robust significant effects of instrumented WII uptake on sociopsychological outcomes—WII uptake increases perceptions of self-sufficiency and free-riding behavior: these are potential channels through which a negative effect on social capital comes about. Although far from conclusive, our paper provides several pieces of evidence that suggest WII uptake negatively affects social capital.
我们研究了天气指数保险（WII）的购买对社会资本的影响。我们采用实验和调查方法来衡量个人社会资本，并将其与天气指数保险的实际购买联系起来。我们使用倾向得分匹配（PSM）和工具变量（IV）来解决内生性问题。我们的描述性估计和倾向得分匹配估计表明，购买天气指数保险对社会资本有显著的负面影响。我们发现，投保家庭对公共物品的贡献少于未投保家庭。使用我们的工具变量方法也发现了定性和定量上相似的结果，但由于缺乏统计能力，我们的工具变量 估计值大多不显著。然而，我们发现，采用工具变量法计算的天气指数保险对社会心理结果具有稳健的重大影响——天气指数保险的购买增加了自给自足的观念和搭便车行为：这些都是对社会资本产生负面影响的潜在渠道。尽管还远未得出结论，但我们的论文提供了几个证据表明，天气指数保险的购买对社会资本产生了负面影响。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12454
Annuity selection in the presence of insurer default risk and government guarantees
保险公司违约风险和政府担保情况下的年金选择
作者
Pamela Searle（利兹大学）, Peter Ayton（利兹大学）, Iain Clacher（利兹大学）
摘要：We investigate whether individuals correctly assess the risk of default of annuity providers and incorporate this information into their decision-making when purchasing an annuity. To do so, we analyze actual retirement product choices from a large administrative data set from Chile and exploit an exogenous change that decreased the coverage of government guarantees against annuity provider default. If individuals are rational and properly incorporate default risk into their decision process then, before this change, individuals should choose riskier providers that give higher annuity payments. However, we find that individuals' decisions are not influenced by changes in their protection against the risk of provider default. It seems that individuals have been unnecessarily reducing their annuity payments by not incorporating crucial information about their actual risk exposure to default when selecting annuities at retirement.
我们研究了个人是否正确评估了年金提供者的违约风险，并在购买年金时将这一信息纳入决策过程中。为此，我们分析了来自智利的一个大型行政数据集中的实际退休产品选择，并利用一个外生变化减少政府对年金提供者违约的担保范围。如果个人是理性的，并在决策过程中适当考虑了违约风险，那么在这一变化之前，个人应该选择（比变化之后）风险更高的供应商，以获得较高的年金支付。然而，我们发现个人的决策并没有受到针对提供者违约风险的保障变化的影响。似乎个人在选择退休年金时，并未将关于实际违约风险暴露的关键信息纳入考虑，从而不必要地降低了年金支付。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12457
Availability of the seat belt defense: Implications for auto liability insurance
安全带抗辩的可用性：对汽车责任保险的影响
作者
Patricia Born（佛罗里达州立大学）, J. Bradley Karl（佛罗里达州立大学）, Charles Nyce（佛罗里达州立大学）
摘要：A “seat belt defense” allows a defendant in a third-party auto liability event to present evidence of seat belt nonuse to reduce a plaintiff's recovery. When successfully applied, the defense has a direct effect on reducing liability payouts by insurers for accidents. Our analysis reveals that seat belt defense laws are associated with a 10% reduction in auto claims costs, which equates to a reduction in loss costs of approximately $14 per insured vehicle. We find little evidence that the defense reduces accident frequency and no evidence that the defense affects seat belt usage. The lack of a deterrent effect on driving behavior suggests that the availability of the defense is not salient to drivers. The reduction in loss costs supports the notion that defense lawyers are aware of the defense and make use of it. The resulting effect of lowering insurance payouts may alleviate increasing auto insurance costs.
“安全带抗辩”是指在第三方汽车责任事故中被告可以提供未使用安全带的证据来减少原告的赔偿。如果辩护成功，则可直接减少保险公司对事故的责任赔付。我们的分析显示，安全带抗辩法可以使汽车理赔成本降低10%，相当于每辆投保车辆的损失成本降低约 14 美元。我们发现，几乎没有证据表明抗辩会降低事故发生频率，也没有证据表明这种抗辩会影响安全带的使用。对驾驶行为缺乏威慑作用表明抗辩的可用性对驾驶者来说并不突出。损失成本的降低支持了辩护律师意识并利用该辩护的观点。由此产生的保险赔付降低的效果可能会缓解日益增长的汽车保险费用。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12458
A behavioral gap in survival beliefs
生存信念中的行为偏差
作者
Giovanna Apicella（乌迪内大学）, Enrico G. De Giorgi（圣加仑大学）
摘要：Life span uncertainty (longevity risk) impacts several economic decisions. Individuals can form and revise their survival beliefs making use of behavioral heuristics. We propose a model of sentiment, in which individuals are assumed to switch between optimistic and pessimistic expectations of their health. When optimism is persistent in the face of health shocks, or when individuals are more likely to change their sentiment from pessimistic to optimistic than otherwise, our model predicts survival underestimation at young ages and overestimation at old ages. An empirical analysis based on the longitudinal data from Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe validates our model.
寿命的不确定性（长寿风险）会影响若干经济决策。个人可以利用行为启发法形成并修正自己的生存信念。我们提出了一种情绪模型，假定个人会在对自身健康的乐观和悲观预期之间切换。当乐观情绪在健康冲击面前持续存在时，或者当个体更有可能从悲观情绪转变为乐观情绪时，我们的模型就会预测在个体年轻时低估了寿命，而在年老时高估寿命。基于欧洲健康、老龄和退休调查纵向数据的实证分析验证了我们的模型。
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jori.12459
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